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Chicken or Egg? Part II

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I am entering a new era on this blog. I am now recycling post titles. Back in 2020, I wrote a post called Chicken or Egg?   The subject of that post was on the importance of specifying a model before specifying the estimator. The subject of this post is different, but no less important. It is a mistake I have seen countless Ph.D. students make, especially when entering the research arena for the first time.  Conversations with said students usually go something like this:           Student: I think I have an idea for a paper.           Elder Researcher: Okay.           Student: But, I'm not sure it will work. My response to this is always the same.         Elder Researcher: What do you mean by "work"? And the student's answer is always the same.         Student: I'm not sure I will find something statistically significant. And ... gotcha. ...